TL;DR
Patrick Ceresna and guest Chase Taylor break down the big themes driving markets right now — from gold’s precarious setup, Mag 7 earnings, and a potential bear market rally, to the evolving bond market, global equities leadership shifts, and tactical commodity trades.
Key Takeaways
- Gold sentiment is stretched. Everyone is bullish, signaling caution; a deeper pullback could be brewing if support levels break.
- Mag 7 earnings are pivotal. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta could drive the next major move in equities. A strong showing could fuel a tactical rally.
- Bear market rally potential. A climb to 5800–6000 S&P is plausible if FOMO kicks in, but macro risks (recession, earnings contraction) loom.
- Global equities diverge. Europe (Spain, Greece, Italy) and emerging markets (India, Mexico) are outperforming; Japan and small caps are lagging.
- The dollar might bounce. After a huge selloff, a short-term dollar bottom could form, but longer-term trends still point weaker.
- Bond steepener is on. Chase favors the 2-year over the long bond; a soft landing is unlikely, and rate cuts are underpriced.
- Commodities offer tactical setups. Corn, soybeans, and cotton look bullish; coffee breaking out; cocoa and wheat less clear.
- Energy remains weak. Crude oil and energy stocks are vulnerable to further downside without a major catalyst.
- Bitcoin shows strength. A move above key resistance (~$96K) could open up a run toward $100K.
Quotes
- “You have to have stuff in place to call your own bullshit.”
- “Everyone hates soybeans right now, which is why it’s perfect if it breaks out.”
- “Markets seek the maximum pain trade. Right now, that could mean a big FOMO rally.”
Who’s It For?
Traders and investors navigating this confusing macro environment — especially those looking for tactical plays in equities, bonds, and commodities while staying grounded in big-picture risks.
Podcast: The Market Huddle
Host: Patrick Ceresna
Guest: Chase Taylor
Length: 1:25 hr
🎧 Listen to the full episode (Spotify)