TL;DR

Raoul Pal sits down with hedge fund manager and futurist Alex Gurevich to dive deep into the current macroeconomic environment, the future of markets, and how AI is ushering in a civilization-altering singularity faster than most realize.

Key Takeaways

  • Macro Overview:
    We are simultaneously navigating five major forces: the business cycle (disinflation), fiscal dominance, demographic-driven deflation, political instability, and the technological singularity.
  • Business Cycle:
    Real rates are too high; central banks will eventually have to inject liquidity and possibly overtighten again afterward.
  • Bond Market and Energy:
    Bond yields are being distorted by liquidity issues, foreign capital shifts, and new regulations. Energy will become the ultimate bottleneck for economic and technological growth.
  • AI Singularity:
    We are exiting exponential growth and entering “hyper-exponential” territory. AGI and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) are developing faster than anyone expected, creating an impending “economic singularity” where traditional concepts like labor, GDP, and inflation become meaningless.
  • Investment Ideas:
    • Long duration (rates will fall)
    • Long TIPS
    • Long Yen
    • Selective hard assets like gold, silver, platinum
    • Very cautious on equities; expects a significant buying opportunity post-correction
  • Energy as a Macro Constraint:
    Energy supply (nuclear, solar, etc.) may soon be the bottleneck to AI and economic expansion — not liquidity.

Quotes

  • “The greatest opportunity lies not in timing the short, but in being a buyer at the bottom.”
  • “Eventually, energy demand from AI will outpace our ability to supply it, even from the Sun.”
  • “This is not an exponential age — we are entering the hyper-exponential age, and it will break everything.”
  • “Financial conditions lead, gold follows. Liquidity is the god factor.”
  • “You can’t outthink ASI — the future of markets will be dominated by liquidity, leverage, and energy.”

Who’s It For?

  • Investors navigating macro cycles
  • Traders interested in AI’s impact on markets
  • Visionaries and futurists fascinated by the economic and technological singularity
  • Anyone preparing their portfolio for a fundamentally different future


Podcast: Raoul Pal’s Journeyman
Host: Raoul Pal
Guest: Alex Gurevich
Length: 1:22 hr
🎧 Listen to the full episode (Spotify)

Alex Gurevich is the author of some of the most creatively titled global macro trading books: The Next Perfect Trade: A Magic Sword of Necessity and The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty.