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Trading Playlist is a weekly AI-powered trading playlist,crafted for swing, position and end-of-day traders juggling a 9-to-5

Market news, sentiment analysis, charts, economic data, podcasts & videos, trading community, Market indicators, and trade ideas

Trading Playlist No.2

16 March 2025

Track #10 – Popular Podcasts

  • Podcast 1: really enjoyed this episode. The guy has so much passion for trading. How a truck driver lost money multiple times before finding success with options trading.
  • Podcast 2: “International is going to outperform domestic for the next 2-5 years”
  • Podcast 3: Lyn Alden

Track #9 – Featured Covers: magazine buzz

Thoughts:

  • Is Barrons a contrary indicator. Or the spark that will ignite an oversold bounce in tech…

Track #8 – Trading Community discussions

This was a popular discussion on reddit . Click on image for link

Track #7 – Headline Acts….Making Headlines

The Legendary trader Stan Druckenmiller says that he reads the NYT, WSJ & FT every day.

Here’s the weekend headlines

New York Times

  • Trump’s moves are boosting stocks…overseas
  • Trade war retaliation will hit Trump voters hardest
  • Tariffs could make buying a car more expensive

Wall Street Journal

  • Consumer sentiment sours
  • Schumer helps GOP head off Federal Shutdown
  • Blood moon eclipse puts on celestial show

Financial Times

  • Spending cuts ruffle “tense” cabinet
  • Bullion bears: Gold price at record high
  • Borrowers told to pledge more pictures as art lenders fret over tumbling prices

Track #6 – Interesting things on Social Media

  • RenMac thinks we are more bearish than we should be

Track #5 – Market Indicators: Is the Market correction over?

Essentially this chart of the Dow is a fairly representative chart of what the “average” chart would look like. With stocks beginning a correction roughly in late Nov-early Dec. So this correction is roughly 3 1/2 months old

The incredibly brainy Brian Pretti who used to run the website ContraryInvestor.com once said that bull market corrections typically don’t trade much more than 5% below the SP500 50 day moving average. Currently we have bottomed at -6.5% and have bounced to -4.5%

Long story short…if this is going to be a correction and not a new bear market. We are likely to be extremely close to the bottom.

Track #4 – In the news last week

  • Trump’s Trade War Threats Stir the Pot: With whispers of tariffs and trade tensions heating up, traders were on edge, debating how this could slam markets or spark opportunities. It’s “America First” vibes meets global market jitters—everyone’s got an opinion!

  • Inflation: US inflation came in cooler than expected. Wednesdays CPI m/m came in at 0.2% versus 0.3% forecast. And Thursdays PPI m/m came in at 0% versus 0.3% forecast. Could this pave the way for central banks to ease up on interest rate hikes?

Track #3 – What’s coming up next week?

  • FED: next weeks market focus will be the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

Track #2 – Trader Education

This is a new trading video out this week. Featuring the guy who created the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.

I asked AI if it was worth watching…..

(This next bit is AI generated)

A long, in-depth conversation with Sherman McClellan, a key figure in technical analysis, about his history in market analysis, the development of the McClellan Oscillator, and his work with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Here’s a summary to help you decide if the video is worth watching:

Key Topics Covered:

  1. Sherman McClellan’s Background & Early Market Interest
    • Studied business and economics but felt something was missing in traditional economic theory regarding market timing.
    • Became interested in technical indicators after graduating.
    • His grandmother, who bet on horse races and followed the stock market, influenced his early market curiosity.
    • Initially worked in the plastic injection molding industry, but market analysis became his true passion.
  2. Development of the McClellan Oscillator & Summation Index
    • In the late 1960s, he and his wife Marian McClellan, a mathematician, developed the McClellan Oscillator.
    • It was based on the advance-decline line, which tracks the number of rising vs. falling stocks.
    • They used exponential moving averages to create a faster, more responsive indicator than traditional moving averages.
    • The Summation Index evolved from the oscillator, helping traders assess broader market trends.
  3. Technical Analysis and Market Insights
    • The Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line) remains a core market breadth indicator.
    • He discusses divergences, where market indices make new highs, but market breadth indicators do not—potentially signaling market weakness.
    • Notes that the NYSE A/D Line is preferred over the NASDAQ A/D Line because the latter has more failed companies, skewing results.
    • The importance of volume-based indicators, including the Volume Summation Index, which confirms major market trends.
    • Divergences in indicators (e.g., price making new highs while the A/D Line does not) have preceded major market downturns.
  4. Current Market Conditions & Predictions
    • The latest technical indicators show market weakness and potential downside risk.
    • Current divergences resemble past bear market signals, with breadth indicators showing lower highs while the S&P 500 made a new high.
    • He outlines possible bearish scenarios if key support levels break.
    • Notes that quantitative easing (QE) heavily influenced market trends, distorting traditional signals.
  5. Cycles & Market Timing
    • Discusses the 42-month (180-week) cycle, which is currently at a major cycle top, suggesting a market downturn could be ahead.
    • Cycle analysis combined with the McClellan Oscillator can enhance timing strategies.
    • Mentions the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and their past work analyzing market cycles.
  6. Historical Market Perspectives & Personal Stories
    • Talks about his experience with early financial TV programs before Bloomberg and CNBC.
    • His wife Marian McClellan was a key contributor to their work, handling advanced mathematical calculations before the widespread use of computers.
    • Discusses early experiences with mutual funds and learning market dynamics through hands-on investing.
    • Mentions his work with West Coast Cycle Club, which still analyzes market cycles today.

Anything Unique or Particularly Interesting?

  • The acceleration vs. momentum discussion is fascinating. McClellan emphasizes that most traders look at momentum (first derivative of price), but his indicators focus on acceleration (second derivative)—helping to anticipate trend changes before they happen.
  • Market breadth and cycle analysis together—he blends technical indicators with cyclical analysis, showing how the market moves in predictable waves.
  • Practical trading insights—he suggests using inverse ETFs and shorting strategies when market breadth indicators signal weakness.
  • Historical market references—relating today’s market patterns to past major tops and bottoms.

Should You Watch It?

✅ Watch if:

  • You’re interested in market breadth indicators, technical analysis, or cycles.
  • You want insight into current market conditions and potential warning signs.
  • You like historical perspectives on market crashes & recoveries.
  • You’re a fan of data-driven trading rather than pure fundamentals.

❌ Skip if:

  • You’re not into technical indicators or market cycles.
  • You prefer short-term trading signals rather than long-term market outlooks.
  • You’re looking for a more straightforward “buy/sell” recommendation—this is more of a deep-dive discussion.

Bottom Line:

If you like trading indicators, market cycles, and breadth analysis, this is gold. If you just want a quick market summary, you can skip it. 🚀

(Now it’s back to human)

  • So are you going to watch?

Track #1 – Audiobooks: What I’ve been listening to this week

It’s a super old trading book. People seem to either love or hate the old trading books.

First published in 1930. Kelly dismantles the idea that successful speculation is purely logical, instead arguing that winning in the markets often requires a contrarian, almost illogical mindset.

The bit where he is talking about being illogical is interesting

0. Start with the Chart

If the market has bottomed (big if) but if it has.

These are some of the industry groups showing the highest rate of change over the past week. Could these be the leading sectors in the next leg up?

ffff

Non-ferrous metals sector was very strong last week

MP: a rare metals stock leading the charge

This chart shows the relative strength of the copper mining etd COPX versus the SP500. There’s been a definite turn up in the past month. Will it continue?

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    Track 10: New Podcasts

    Ray Dalio is out with a new book in September. With the cheery title of “How Countries Go Broke”

    So he appeared on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss it

    Odd Lots

    The Gist

    The Scale of Debt is Hard to Grasp

    • The podcast opens with a discussion on how massive financial figures, like the U.S. budget deficit ($1.8 trillion in 2024), are hard to comprehend without visual analogies (e.g., stacks of bills covering a football field).
    • This lack of intuitive understanding makes it harder for the public to take debt problems seriously.

    Key Takeaways in 5 Minutes

    💰 The Debt Problem is Bigger Than Most Realize

    • The U.S. deficit hit $1.8 trillion in 2024, and debt is piling up faster than income.
    • Dalio warns that we’re near a major debt cycle inflection point.

    📉 What Happens Next?

    • Governments will likely print more money to fund debt, leading to inflation and a weaker dollar.
    • Interest rates could spike unexpectedly, triggering market shocks.

    🏦 Who Will Buy U.S. Debt?

    • Foreign buyers (China, banks) are stepping back.
    • The Fed may have to step in, leading to another round of QE (money printing).

    🏆 Gold, Bitcoin & Hard Assets Might Shine

    • As trust in fiat currencies declines, gold & Bitcoin could surge as alternative stores of value.

    📊 What Should Traders Watch?

    • Rising bond yields (signals stress in debt markets).
    • Inflation trends & Fed policy shifts.
    • Potential geopolitical shocks (sanctions, trade wars affecting debt markets).

    ⚡ Dalio’s Big Warning:
    “If we don’t cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, we risk an economic ‘heart attack’ in the next 3 years.”

    Track 9: New Articles/Blogs

    Another podcast/transcript worth looking at. John Roque is one of the best technical analysts in the game. Having worked for funds like Soros management.

    The full transcript is here: https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21197/gold-shines-tech-fades-john-roques-bold-market-call

    Key Takeaways in 5 Minutes

    📉 Tech Stocks Cracking

    • Nvidia, despite strong earnings, has stagnated—Roque targets $90 for downside.
    • Microsoft sliding, Apple holding up the best, but overall MAG7 stocks are weakening.
    • Nasdaq and semiconductors face a bearish outlook—XLK is breaking down.

    📊 S&P 500: A Sell-the-Rally Market

    • Roque sees the S&P dropping to 5500, possibly 5200 as leadership shifts.
    • Risk-off period: Defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare) are outperforming.
    • “Sell rallies, not buy dips.”

    🏦 Interest Rates Outlook

    • 10-year yield may drop to 3.6%, with the 2-year looking even weaker.
    • Tariffs & politics (Trump’s push for lower rates) add uncertainty.

    🏅 Precious Metals & Commodities

    • Gold up 28% last year, silver and copper also strong—Roque sees further gains.
    • Gold may outperform the S&P in the long run.
    • Oil divergence: Energy weakens (oil target: $52) while copper rises.

    🌎 Foreign Markets Beating the U.S.

    • Europe & Hong Kong leading—a shift from previous cycles.
    • Different sector winners abroad vs. U.S., signaling unique opportunities.

    ⚠️ Trump 2.0 & Market Uncertainty

    • Unlike Trump 1.0, which focused on markets, Trump 2.0 prioritizes policy changes.
    • Roque believes Trump is willing to accept a 5% S&P decline for long-term objectives.

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